EFL Championship
Millwall vs Lincoln City prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Millwall
Lincoln City
- Millwall
- 43%Megapari 1.88
- Draw
- 28%Megapari 3.55
- Lincoln City
- 29%Megapari 3.81
- Under 3.5 goals76% · fair 1.31
xG 1.2–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (14%)
Millwall host Lincoln City in the EFL Championship on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT.
Who will win Millwall vs Lincoln City?
There is little to separate the sides: Millwall 43%, the draw 28%, Lincoln City 29%. Megapari's 1.88 on Millwall is shorter than our fair price of 2.31: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (76%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall to win | 43% | 2.31 | 1.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| Lincoln City to win | 29% | 3.45 | 3.81 |
| Millwall or draw | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Draw or Lincoln City | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Millwall or Lincoln City | 72% | 1.38 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.42 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | 2.04 | – |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Millwall vs Lincoln City
Expected goals are 1.2 for Millwall and 1.1 for Lincoln City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 46%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.
Millwall vs Lincoln City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 0-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.8% | 7.27 |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 8.87 |
| 0-1 | 10.6% | 9.46 |
| 0-0 | 10.4% | 9.59 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.69 |
Form: Millwall and Lincoln City in their last five
Millwall have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Lincoln City have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Millwall: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | West Ham (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (away)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Blackburn Rovers (away)EFL Championship | 1-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers (home)EFL Championship | 4-0 | W |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (home)EFL Championship | 0-3 | L |
Lincoln City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (home)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Preston North End (away)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Southampton (home)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Blackburn Rovers (home)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
Millwall vs Lincoln City head to head
Millwall and Lincoln City have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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