UEFA Conference League
Monaco vs Freiburg prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Monaco host Freiburg in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Louis II (Monaco). Monaco are 9th in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Freiburg are 7th with 3.
Who will win Monaco vs Freiburg?
Monaco are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 24% for the draw and 27% for Freiburg. Megapari pays 2.29 on Monaco, more than our fair price of 2.04.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco to win | 49% | 2.04 | 2.29 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | 3.77 |
| Freiburg to win | 27% | 3.64 | 2.98 |
| Monaco or draw | 73% | 1.38 | 1.42 |
| Draw or Freiburg | 51% | 1.96 | 1.65 |
| Monaco or Freiburg | 76% | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.68 | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.46 | 2.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 60% | 1.68 | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | 2.48 | 2.37 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 12:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Monaco vs Freiburg
Goals are expected: 2.1 for Monaco and 1.3 for Freiburg, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.
Monaco vs Freiburg correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (10%) and 2-0 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.42 |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | 10.50 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.37 |
| 1-0 | 6.8% | 14.79 |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | 14.90 |
Form: Monaco and Freiburg in their last five
Monaco are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. Freiburg are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 13 goals scored and 5 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Monaco: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | CSKA Sofia (away)UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Toulouse (home)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Lens (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Strasbourg (away)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | PSG (away)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
Freiburg: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Jablonec (home)UEFA Conference League | 3-2 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Schalke 04 (home)Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Gladbach (home)Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Paderborn 07 (away)Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
Monaco vs Freiburg head to head
Monaco and Freiburg have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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