Monaco vs Lille prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 25 October

Monaco host Lille in Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Louis II (Monaco). Monaco are 1st in the table with 14 points from 6 games; Lille are 2nd with 14.

Who will win Monaco vs Lille?

There is little to separate the sides: Monaco 45%, the draw 27%, Lille 28%. Megapari's 2.18 on Monaco sits right on our fair price of 2.24.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Monaco vs Lille

Expected goals are 1.5 for Monaco and 1.2 for Lille, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Monaco vs Lille correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Monaco and Lille in their last five

Monaco are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. Lille have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Monaco: last five matches

Lille: last five matches

Monaco vs Lille head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Monaco won 1, Lille won 4 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Monaco 0–1 Lille.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Monaco has drifted from 2.17 to 2.18 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.73 to 1.77, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.