Monza vs Cagliari prediction: Serie A, Monday 19 October

Monza host Cagliari in Serie A on Monday 19 October, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at Brianteo (Monza). Monza are 16th in the table with 4 points from 6 games; Cagliari are 4th with 13.

Who will win Monza vs Cagliari?

There is little to separate the sides: Monza 36%, the draw 29%, Cagliari 35%. At 29% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.38 on Monza is shorter than our fair price of 2.77: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 12 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Monza vs Cagliari

Expected goals are 1.1 for Monza and 1.3 for Cagliari, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.

Monza vs Cagliari correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Monza and Cagliari in their last five

Monza have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Cagliari have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Monza: last five matches

Cagliari: last five matches

Monza vs Cagliari head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Monza won 1, Cagliari won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 30 March 2025, finished Cagliari 3–0 Monza.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Monza has drifted from 2.21 to 2.38 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.21 to 2.13, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.