Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian prediction: Scottish Premiership, Sunday 25 October

Motherwell host Heart of Midlothian in the Scottish Premiership on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Fir Park (Motherwell). Motherwell are 10th in the table with 8 points from 9 games; Heart of Midlothian are 3rd with 16.

Who will win Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian?

There is little to separate the sides: Motherwell 32%, the draw 26%, Heart of Midlothian 41%. Megapari's 2.15 on Heart of Midlothian is shorter than our fair price of 2.42: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian

Expected goals are 1.3 for Motherwell and 1.4 for Heart of Midlothian, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (9%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Motherwell and Heart of Midlothian in their last five

Motherwell have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. Heart of Midlothian have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.

Motherwell: last five matches

Heart of Midlothian: last five matches

Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Motherwell won none, Heart of Midlothian won 2 and 4 were drawn. The most recent, on 9 May 2026, finished Motherwell 1–1 Heart of Midlothian.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.