Kenyan Premier League
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar prediction: Kenyan Premier League, Friday 16 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Nairobi United
Mara Sugar
- Nairobi United
- 43%Megapari 2.21
- Draw
- 31%Megapari 2.89
- Mara Sugar
- 26%Megapari 3.21
- Under 3.5 goals80% · fair 1.25Bet 1.11
xG 1.2–0.8 · likeliest 1-0 (15%)
Nairobi United host Mara Sugar in the Kenyan Premier League on Friday 16 October, kick-off 15:00 EAT. Nairobi United are 6th in the table with 1 points from 1 games; Mara Sugar are 5th with 1.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
There is little to separate the sides: Nairobi United 43%, the draw 31%, Mara Sugar 26%. At 31% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.21 on Nairobi United is shorter than our fair price of 2.35: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United to win | 43% | 2.35 | 2.21 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | 2.89 |
| Mara Sugar to win | 26% | 3.78 | 3.21 |
| Nairobi United or draw | 74% | 1.36 | 1.25 |
| Draw or Mara Sugar | 57% | 1.74 | 1.51 |
| Nairobi United or Mara Sugar | 69% | 1.45 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | 1.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.60 | 2.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62% | 1.63 | 1.41 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | 2.20 | 2.11 |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | 1.83 | 1.62 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 14 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar
The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 1.2 and 0.8, and under 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 45%.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 15%, ahead of 1-1 (14%) and 0-0 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.2% | 6.59 |
| 1-1 | 13.6% | 7.36 |
| 0-0 | 13.5% | 7.41 |
| 0-1 | 10.3% | 9.74 |
| 2-0 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
Form: Nairobi United and Mara Sugar in their last five
Nairobi United are unbeaten in 5 (1 win, 4 draws), with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. Mara Sugar are unbeaten in 5 (0 wins, 5 draws), with 2 goals scored and 2 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Nairobi United: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | KCB (home)Kenyan Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Bandari (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 31 May 2026 | Gor Mahia (away)Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 24 May 2026 | Kenya Police (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 16 May 2026 | Posta Rangers (home)Kenyan Premier League | 2-2 | D |
Mara Sugar: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 3K (away)Kenyan Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Tusker (away)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Leopards (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Ulinzi Stars (away)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Mombasa United (home)Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 | D |
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Nairobi United won 1, Mara Sugar won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 1 April 2026, finished Nairobi United 1–1 Mara Sugar.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2026 | Nairobi United – Mara SugarKenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 1 Oct 2025 | Mara Sugar – Nairobi UnitedKenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
The rest of the Kenyan Premier League is on our FKF Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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