Napoli vs Roma prediction: Serie A, Saturday 24 October

Napoli host Roma in Serie A on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 19:00 EAT. The match is played at Diego Armando Maradona (Naples). Napoli are 9th in the table with 10 points from 7 games; Roma are 3rd with 14.

Who will win Napoli vs Roma?

There is little to separate the sides: Napoli 31%, the draw 28%, Roma 40%. Megapari's 2.45 on Roma sits right on our fair price of 2.49.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Napoli vs Roma

Expected goals are 1.0 for Napoli and 1.2 for Roma, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 48%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.

Napoli vs Roma correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (12%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Napoli and Roma in their last five

Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Roma have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Napoli: last five matches

Roma: last five matches

Napoli vs Roma head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Napoli won 2, Roma won 1 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 15 February 2026, finished Napoli 2–2 Roma.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Roma has shortened from 2.52 to 2.45 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.93 to 1.93, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.