NEC vs Fortuna Sittard prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 18 October

NEC host Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 21:00 EAT. The match is played at Goffert (Nijmegen). NEC are 11th in the table with 9 points from 8 games; Fortuna Sittard are 6th with 14.

Who will win NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?

NEC are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 21% for the draw and 20% for Fortuna Sittard. Megapari's 1.49 on NEC is shorter than our fair price of 1.68: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: NEC to win (59%), NEC or draw (80%), over 1.5 goals (82%), over 2.5 goals (65%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in NEC vs Fortuna Sittard

Goals are expected: 2.1 for NEC and 1.3 for Fortuna Sittard, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 65%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.

NEC vs Fortuna Sittard correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: NEC and Fortuna Sittard in their last five

NEC have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. Fortuna Sittard have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

NEC: last five matches

Fortuna Sittard: last five matches

NEC vs Fortuna Sittard head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, NEC won 3, Fortuna Sittard won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 28 February 2026, finished NEC 2–3 Fortuna Sittard.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on NEC has drifted from 1.44 to 1.49 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.28 to 1.30, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.