Eredivisie
NEC vs Groningen prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 25 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
NEC host Groningen in Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Goffert (Nijmegen). NEC are 11th in the table with 9 points from 8 games; Groningen are 6th with 14.
Who will win NEC vs Groningen?
There is little to separate the sides: NEC 45%, the draw 24%, Groningen 31%. Megapari's 2.08 on NEC is shorter than our fair price of 2.25: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%), over 2.5 goals (61%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC to win | 45% | 2.25 | 2.08 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | 3.88 |
| Groningen to win | 31% | 3.20 | 3.19 |
| NEC or draw | 69% | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Draw or Groningen | 55% | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| NEC or Groningen | 76% | 1.32 | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.55 | 2.43 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 62% | 1.62 | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | 2.61 | 2.63 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in NEC vs Groningen
Goals are expected: 1.7 for NEC and 1.5 for Groningen, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.
NEC vs Groningen correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.7% | 9.35 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.21 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.07 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.06 |
| 1-0 | 6.5% | 15.41 |
Form: NEC and Groningen in their last five
NEC have not won in 5 (3 draws, 2 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. Groningen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.
NEC: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Levski Sofia (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Ajax (away)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (home)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Juventus (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-5 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cambuur (away)Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
Groningen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | SBV Excelsior (away)Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| 18 Sep 2026 | PEC Zwolle (home)Eredivisie | 3-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (away)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Twente (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Fortuna Sittard (home)Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
NEC vs Groningen head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, NEC won 2, Groningen won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Groningen 2–1 NEC.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Groningen – NECEredivisie | 2-1 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | NEC – GroningenEredivisie | 2-0 |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Groningen – NECEredivisie | 2-1 |
| 3 Nov 2024 | NEC – GroningenEredivisie | 6-0 |
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on NEC has shortened from 2.10 to 2.08 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| NEC to win | 2.10 | 2.08 ↓ |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.88 ↑ |
| Groningen to win | 3.15 | 3.19 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 2.43 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.44 | 1.43 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.69 | 2.63 ↓ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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