Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction: Premier League, Saturday 17 October

Newcastle host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at St. James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne). Newcastle are 11th in the table with 8 points from 5 games; Aston Villa are 14th with 5.

Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

There is little to separate the sides: Newcastle 43%, the draw 25%, Aston Villa 32%. Megapari's 2.17 on Newcastle is shorter than our fair price of 2.32: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Goals are expected: 1.7 for Newcastle and 1.5 for Aston Villa, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Newcastle and Aston Villa in their last five

Newcastle have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Aston Villa have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Newcastle: last five matches

Aston Villa: last five matches

Newcastle vs Aston Villa head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Newcastle won 2, Aston Villa won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 25 January 2026, finished Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.