UEFA Conference League
Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Nordsjælland host CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Right to Dream Park (Farum). Nordsjælland are 17th in the table with 1 points from 1 games; CSKA Sofia are 28th with 0.
Who will win Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia?
Nordsjælland are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 23% for the draw and 18% for CSKA Sofia. Megapari's 1.56 on Nordsjælland is shorter than our fair price of 1.70: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Nordsjælland to win (59%) and Nordsjælland or draw (82%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nordsjælland to win Tip | 59% | 1.70 | 1.56 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | 4.51 |
| CSKA Sofia to win | 18% | 5.54 | 5.81 |
| Nordsjælland or draw Tip | 82% | 1.22 | 1.15 |
| Draw or CSKA Sofia | 41% | 2.43 | 2.51 |
| Nordsjælland or CSKA Sofia | 77% | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 | 2.34 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.87 | 1.67 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.15 | 2.08 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 12:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia
Expected goals are 1.7 for Nordsjælland and 0.9 for CSKA Sofia, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 12%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.1% | 8.25 |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.45 |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | 9.38 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.35 |
| 0-0 | 7.9% | 12.71 |
Form: Nordsjælland and CSKA Sofia in their last five
Nordsjælland have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. CSKA Sofia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Nordsjælland: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Heart of Midlothian (away)UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Odense (home)Danish Superliga | 0-0 | D |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Viborg (away)Danish Superliga | 1-4 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Aarhus (home)Danish Superliga | 2-0 | W |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Midtjylland (away)Danish Superliga | 2-2 | D |
CSKA Sofia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Monaco (home)UEFA Conference League | 1-2 | L |
| 11 Oct 2026 | CSKA Sofia (away)Bulgarian First League | 3-2 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv (away)Bulgarian First League | 1-1 | D |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia (away)Bulgarian First League | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Arda Kardzhali (home)Bulgarian First League | 4-1 | W |
Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia head to head
Nordsjælland and CSKA Sofia have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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