EFL Championship
Norwich City vs Portsmouth prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Norwich City
Portsmouth
- Norwich City
- 55%
- Draw
- 23%
- Portsmouth
- 22%
- Over 1.5 goals79% · fair 1.27
xG 1.9–1.2 · likeliest 1-1 (11%)
Norwich City host Portsmouth in the EFL Championship on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Who will win Norwich City vs Portsmouth?
Norwich City are favourites, though not by much: 55% to win, 23% for the draw and 22% for Portsmouth.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich City to win | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 |
| Portsmouth to win | 22% | 4.47 |
| Norwich City or draw | 78% | 1.29 |
| Draw or Portsmouth | 45% | 2.20 |
| Norwich City or Portsmouth | 77% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 79% | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.53 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.28 |
Goals in Norwich City vs Portsmouth
Expected goals are 1.9 for Norwich City and 1.2 for Portsmouth, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Norwich City vs Portsmouth correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.7% | 9.35 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.17 |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 11.76 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.81 |
| 3-1 | 6.3% | 15.95 |
Form: Norwich City and Portsmouth in their last five
Norwich City have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Portsmouth have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Norwich City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers (home)EFL Championship | 3-4 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough (away)EFL Championship | 3-4 | L |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (home)EFL Championship | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (away)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Stoke City (away)EFL Championship | 0-1 | L |
Portsmouth: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Blackburn Rovers (home)EFL Championship | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic (away)EFL Championship | 0-0 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (home)EFL Championship | 2-0 | W |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Derby County (home)EFL Championship | 0-2 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Bristol City (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
Norwich City vs Portsmouth head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Norwich City won 1, Portsmouth won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 3 April 2026, finished Norwich City 1–1 Portsmouth.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | Norwich City – PortsmouthEFL Championship | 1-1 |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Portsmouth – Norwich CityEFL Championship | 1-2 |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Norwich City – PortsmouthEFL Championship | 3-5 |
| 10 Dec 2024 | Portsmouth – Norwich CityEFL Championship | 0-0 |
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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