Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction: Premier League, Sunday 18 October

Nottingham Forest host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 18:30 EAT. The match is played at City Ground (Nottingham). Nottingham Forest are 14th in the table with 5 points from 6 games; Arsenal are 2nd with 15.

Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favourites, though not by much: 57% to win, 26% for the draw and 17% for Nottingham Forest. Megapari's 1.66 on Arsenal is shorter than our fair price of 1.75: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Arsenal to win (57%), draw or Arsenal (83%) and under 3.5 goals (77%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Expected goals are 0.7 for Nottingham Forest and 1.5 for Arsenal, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 0-1 at 15%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 0-2 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: Nottingham Forest and Arsenal in their last five

Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Arsenal have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Nottingham Forest: last five matches

Arsenal: last five matches

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Nottingham Forest won none, Arsenal won 3 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 17 January 2026, finished Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.