UEFA Europa League
OFI Crete vs Leverkusen prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
OFI Crete host Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Pankritio (Heraklion). OFI Crete are 18th in the table with 3 points from 2 games; Leverkusen are 2nd with 6.
Who will win OFI Crete vs Leverkusen?
The model makes Leverkusen clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 19% and OFI Crete at 14%. Megapari's 1.37 on Leverkusen is shorter than our fair price of 1.51: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Leverkusen to win (66%), draw or Leverkusen (86%), over 1.5 goals (81%) and over 2.5 goals (62%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| OFI Crete to win | 14% | 6.91 | 8.60 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.22 | 5.42 |
| Leverkusen to win Tip | 66% | 1.51 | 1.37 |
| OFI Crete or draw | 34% | 2.97 | 3.26 |
| Draw or Leverkusen Tip | 86% | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| OFI Crete or Leverkusen | 81% | 1.24 | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.24 | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 62% | 1.61 | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.63 | 2.56 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.60 | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.80 | 1.70 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.25 | 2.05 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in OFI Crete vs Leverkusen
Goals are expected: 1.1 for OFI Crete and 2.2 for Leverkusen, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
OFI Crete vs Leverkusen correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-2 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 0-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 10.18 |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | 10.76 |
| 0-2 | 8.9% | 11.21 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.90 |
| 1-3 | 7.2% | 13.91 |
Form: OFI Crete and Leverkusen in their last five
OFI Crete have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Leverkusen are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 14 goals scored and 5 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
OFI Crete: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Rennes (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | AEK Athens (away)Super League Greece | 0-3 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Asteras Tripolis (home)Super League Greece | 2-2 | D |
| 17 Sep 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Olympiacos (away)Super League Greece | 1-0 | W |
Leverkusen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Lech Poznań (away)UEFA Europa League | 4-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Mainz (away)Bundesliga | 4-3 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | RB Leipzig (home)Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Celje (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Augsburg (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
OFI Crete vs Leverkusen head to head
OFI Crete and Leverkusen have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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