UEFA Europa League
Omonia vs Benfica prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Omonia
Benfica
- Omonia
- 26%Megapari 5.83
- Draw
- 26%Megapari 4.11
- Benfica
- 48%Megapari 1.62
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.2–1.2 · likeliest 1-1 (14%)
Omonia host Benfica in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at GSP (Nicosia). Omonia are 6th in the table with 6 points from 2 games; Benfica are 3rd with 6.
Who will win Omonia vs Benfica?
Benfica are favourites, though not by much: 48% to win, 26% for the draw and 26% for Omonia. Megapari's 1.62 on Benfica is shorter than our fair price of 2.09: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia to win | 26% | 3.85 | 5.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | 4.11 |
| Benfica to win | 48% | 2.09 | 1.62 |
| Omonia or draw | 52% | 1.92 | 2.38 |
| Draw or Benfica | 74% | 1.35 | 1.16 |
| Omonia or Benfica | 74% | 1.36 | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.02 | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 | 2.02 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | 1.96 | 1.84 |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | 2.04 | 1.88 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Omonia vs Benfica
Expected goals are 1.2 for Omonia and 1.2 for Benfica, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.
Omonia vs Benfica correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 1-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.6% | 7.34 |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | 9.62 |
| 0-0 | 9.7% | 10.27 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
Form: Omonia and Benfica in their last five
Omonia are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 11 goals scored and 1 conceded. Benfica have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. The results cover every competition in our data.
Omonia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Celje (away)UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Karmiotissa Pano Polemidion (away)Cypriot First Division | 3-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Krasava ENY (home)Cypriot First Division | 4-1 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Celta Vigo (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Apollon Limassol (home)Cypriot First Division | 0-0 | D |
Benfica: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Celtic (home)UEFA Europa League | 4-1 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Vitória de Guimarães (home)Primeira Liga | 2-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Porto (away)Primeira Liga | 1-3 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | AC Milan (away)UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Gil Vicente (home)Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
Omonia vs Benfica head to head
Omonia and Benfica have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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