Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 24 October

Paderborn 07 host Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn). Paderborn 07 are 15th in the table with 5 points from 6 games; Hamburger SV are 9th with 9.

Who will win Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?

There is little to separate the sides: Paderborn 07 41%, the draw 26%, Hamburger SV 33%. Megapari's 2.40 on Paderborn 07 sits right on our fair price of 2.42.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV

Expected goals are 1.4 for Paderborn 07 and 1.2 for Hamburger SV, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (9%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV in their last five

Paderborn 07 have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Hamburger SV have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -7. The results cover every competition in our data.

Paderborn 07: last five matches

Hamburger SV: last five matches

Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Paderborn 07 won 3, Hamburger SV won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 2 March 2025, finished Paderborn 07 2–0 Hamburger SV.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Paderborn 07 has drifted from 2.36 to 2.40 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.44 to 1.64, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.