UEFA Conference League
Pafos vs Riga prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Pafos host Riga in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Alphamega (Kolossi). Pafos are 32nd in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Riga are 22nd with 1.
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
The model makes Pafos clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 23% and Riga at 17%. Megapari's 1.54 on Pafos is shorter than our fair price of 1.65: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Pafos to win (61%) and Pafos or draw (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos to win Tip | 61% | 1.65 | 1.54 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | 4.36 |
| Riga to win | 17% | 5.96 | 6.27 |
| Pafos or draw Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| Draw or Riga | 39% | 2.54 | 2.54 |
| Pafos or Riga | 77% | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.17 | 2.12 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.09 | 1.91 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 12:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Pafos vs Riga
Expected goals are 1.9 for Pafos and 0.9 for Riga, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Pafos vs Riga correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.0% | 9.08 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 9.27 |
| 2-0 | 10.5% | 9.54 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.10 |
| 3-0 | 6.5% | 15.31 |
Form: Pafos and Riga in their last five
Pafos have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Riga are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Pafos: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Atalanta (away)UEFA Conference League | 1-3 | L |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Anorthosis (away)Cypriot First Division | 3-1 | W |
| 18 Sep 2026 | AEL Limassol (home)Cypriot First Division | 0-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | AEK Larnaca (away)Cypriot First Division | 1-0 | W |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Olympiakos Nicosia (home)Cypriot First Division | 0-0 | D |
Riga: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Kairat (home)UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| 27 Aug 2026 | KÍ (home)UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| 20 Aug 2026 | KÍ (away)UEFA Conference League | 0-0 | D |
| 13 Aug 2026 | Gyori ETO (away)UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Aug 2026 | Gyori ETO (home)UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
Pafos vs Riga head to head
Pafos and Riga have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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