Parma vs Torino prediction: Serie A, Monday 19 October

Parma host Torino in Serie A on Monday 19 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma). Parma are 18th in the table with 4 points from 6 games; Torino are 15th with 4.

Who will win Parma vs Torino?

There is little to separate the sides: Parma 31%, the draw 31%, Torino 38%. At 31% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.54 on Torino is shorter than our fair price of 2.66: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: draw (31%) and under 3.5 goals (80%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 12 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Parma vs Torino

The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 1.0 and 1.1, and under 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.

Parma vs Torino correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-0 (13%) and 0-1 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Parma and Torino in their last five

Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Torino have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Parma: last five matches

Torino: last five matches

Parma vs Torino head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Parma won 1, Torino won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 13 March 2026, finished Torino 4–1 Parma.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Torino has drifted from 2.52 to 2.54 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.35 to 2.48, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.