UEFA Champions League
Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 20 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Porto host PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Dragao (Porto). Porto are 30th in the table with 0 points from 2 games; PSV Eindhoven are 26th with 1.
Who will win Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Porto are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 23% for the draw and 24% for PSV Eindhoven. Megapari's 1.76 on Porto is shorter than our fair price of 1.88: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto to win | 53% | 1.88 | 1.76 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | 4.41 |
| PSV Eindhoven to win | 24% | 4.19 | 4.51 |
| Porto or draw | 76% | 1.31 | 1.24 |
| Draw or PSV Eindhoven | 47% | 2.14 | 2.18 |
| Porto or PSV Eindhoven | 77% | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.68 | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.47 | 2.35 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | 1.64 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 59% | 1.70 | 1.55 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.42 | 2.32 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 12:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Porto vs PSV Eindhoven
Goals are expected: 1.9 for Porto and 1.3 for PSV Eindhoven, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.
Porto vs PSV Eindhoven correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.6% | 9.45 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.45 |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 13.40 |
| 2-0 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
| 1-2 | 6.6% | 15.20 |
Form: Porto and PSV Eindhoven in their last five
Porto have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. PSV Eindhoven have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Porto: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Real Betis (away)UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Marítimo (away)Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Benfica (home)Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Casa Pia (away)Primeira Liga | 4-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Man City (home)UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
PSV Eindhoven: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | RB Leipzig (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Heerenveen (home)Eredivisie | 2-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Twente (away)Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (home)Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
Porto vs PSV Eindhoven head to head
Porto and PSV Eindhoven have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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