Ligue 1
PSG vs Lyon prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 25 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
PSG host Lyon in Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Parc des Princes (Paris). PSG are 1st in the table with 14 points from 7 games; Lyon are 6th with 11.
Who will win PSG vs Lyon?
The model makes PSG clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 19% and Lyon at 14%. Megapari's 1.43 on PSG is shorter than our fair price of 1.50: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: PSG to win (67%), PSG or draw (86%), over 1.5 goals (81%) and over 2.5 goals (64%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG to win Tip | 67% | 1.50 | 1.43 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.29 | 5.44 |
| Lyon to win | 14% | 6.99 | 7.60 |
| PSG or draw Tip | 86% | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| Draw or Lyon | 33% | 3.01 | 3.07 |
| PSG or Lyon | 81% | 1.23 | 1.19 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.24 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 64% | 1.57 | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.76 | 2.88 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 | 1.93 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | 1.74 | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | 2.36 | 2.30 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in PSG vs Lyon
Goals are expected: 2.2 for PSG and 1.0 for Lyon, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 58%.
PSG vs Lyon correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-0 (10%) and 1-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.19 |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | 10.45 |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.24 |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | 13.61 |
Form: PSG and Lyon in their last five
PSG have won all of their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 5. Lyon have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.
PSG: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | Strasbourg (away)Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Man City (away)UEFA Champions League | 4-2 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Le Mans (home)Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Marseille (away)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Brest (away)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
Lyon: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Crystal Palace (home)UEFA Europa League | 3-2 | W |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Lens (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Rennes (home)Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Anderlecht (away)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Paris (away)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
PSG vs Lyon head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, PSG won 4, Lyon won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 19 April 2026, finished PSG 1–2 Lyon.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | PSG – LyonLigue 1 | 1-2 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Lyon – PSGLigue 1 | 2-3 |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Lyon – PSGLigue 1 | 2-3 |
| 15 Dec 2024 | PSG – LyonLigue 1 | 3-1 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | PSG – LyonLigue 1 | 4-1 |
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on PSG has shortened from 1.58 to 1.43 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.41 to 1.35, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| PSG to win | 1.58 | 1.43 ↓ |
| Draw | 4.78 | 5.44 ↑ |
| Lyon to win | 5.75 | 7.60 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.41 | 1.35 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.64 | 2.88 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.52 | 1.56 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.40 | 2.30 ↓ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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