Rayo Vallecano vs Elche prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 24 October

Rayo Vallecano host Elche in LaLiga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 15:00 EAT. The match is played at Campo de Vallecas (Madrid). Rayo Vallecano are 13th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; Elche are 18th with 6.

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

Rayo Vallecano are favourites, though not by much: 52% to win, 26% for the draw and 22% for Elche. Megapari's 1.81 on Rayo Vallecano is shorter than our fair price of 1.92: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

Expected goals are 1.5 for Rayo Vallecano and 0.9 for Elche, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (12%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Rayo Vallecano and Elche in their last five

Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Elche have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Rayo Vallecano: last five matches

Elche: last five matches

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Rayo Vallecano won 1, Elche won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 3 April 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Elche.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Rayo Vallecano has drifted from 1.80 to 1.81 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.80 to 1.88, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.