RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 24 October

RB Leipzig host SV 07 Elversberg in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Red Bull Arena (Leipzig). RB Leipzig are 7th in the table with 9 points from 6 games; SV 07 Elversberg are 6th with 10.

Who will win RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg?

The model makes RB Leipzig clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 18% and SV 07 Elversberg at 16%. Megapari's 1.40 on RB Leipzig is shorter than our fair price of 1.52: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: RB Leipzig to win (66%), RB Leipzig or draw (84%), over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (67%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg

Goals are expected: 2.2 for RB Leipzig and 1.1 for SV 07 Elversberg, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 67%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.

RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: RB Leipzig and SV 07 Elversberg in their last five

RB Leipzig have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. SV 07 Elversberg have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

RB Leipzig: last five matches

SV 07 Elversberg: last five matches

RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg head to head

RB Leipzig and SV 07 Elversberg have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on RB Leipzig has drifted from 1.33 to 1.40 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.27 to 1.25, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.