UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 21 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Real Madrid
RB Leipzig
- Real Madrid
- 71%Megapari 1.33
- Draw
- 17%Megapari 6.44
- RB Leipzig
- 12%Megapari 9.20
- Real Madrid to win71% · fair 1.41Bet 1.33
- Real Madrid or draw88% · fair 1.14Bet 1.08
- Over 1.5 goals83% · fair 1.21Bet 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals68% · fair 1.48Bet 1.27
- Both teams to score: yes59% · fair 1.70Bet 1.54
xG 2.5–1.1 · likeliest 2-1 (9%)
Real Madrid host RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid). Real Madrid are 8th in the table with 6 points from 2 games; RB Leipzig are 21st with 3.
Who will win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The model makes Real Madrid clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 17% and RB Leipzig at 12%. Megapari's 1.33 on Real Madrid is shorter than our fair price of 1.41: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Real Madrid to win (71%), Real Madrid or draw (88%), over 1.5 goals (83%), over 2.5 goals (68%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win Tip | 71% | 1.41 | 1.33 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.04 | 6.44 |
| RB Leipzig to win | 12% | 8.07 | 9.20 |
| Real Madrid or draw Tip | 88% | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| Draw or RB Leipzig | 29% | 3.46 | 3.64 |
| Real Madrid or RB Leipzig | 83% | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 83% | 1.21 | 1.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 68% | 1.48 | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.10 | 3.34 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 | 2.14 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 59% | 1.70 | 1.54 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.42 | 2.35 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 15 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Goals are expected: 2.5 for Real Madrid and 1.1 for RB Leipzig, 3.6 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 68%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 2-0 (9%) and 1-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.62 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | 12.72 |
| 3-1 | 7.8% | 12.76 |
| 3-0 | 7.3% | 13.66 |
Form: Real Madrid and RB Leipzig in their last five
Real Madrid have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. RB Leipzig have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. The results cover every competition in our data.
Real Madrid: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Roma (away)UEFA Champions League | 4-3 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Villarreal (home)LaLiga | 1-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Atlético Madrid (away)LaLiga | 1-2 | L |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Elche (away)LaLiga | 3-2 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Rayo Vallecano (home)LaLiga | 4-1 | W |
RB Leipzig: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (home)Bundesliga | 6-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Leverkusen (away)Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Hamburger SV (home)Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Como (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Real Madrid won 1, RB Leipzig won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 6 March 2024, finished Real Madrid 1–1 RB Leipzig.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2024 | Real Madrid – RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League | 1-1 |
| 13 Feb 2024 | RB Leipzig – Real MadridUEFA Champions League | 0-1 |
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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