Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction: LaLiga, Sunday 18 October

Real Madrid host Sevilla in LaLiga on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid). Real Madrid are 4th in the table with 18 points from 8 games; Sevilla are 5th with 13.

Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

The model makes Real Madrid clear favourites at 77%, with the draw at 15% and Sevilla at 8%. Megapari's 1.30 on Real Madrid sits right on our fair price of 1.30.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Real Madrid to win (77%), Real Madrid or draw (92%), over 1.5 goals (82%) and over 2.5 goals (65%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Goals are expected: 2.7 for Real Madrid and 0.7 for Sevilla, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 65%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 12%, ahead of 3-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Real Madrid and Sevilla in their last five

Real Madrid have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Sevilla have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Real Madrid: last five matches

Sevilla: last five matches

Real Madrid vs Sevilla head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Real Madrid won 5, Sevilla won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.