Rennes vs Strasbourg prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 25 October

Rennes host Strasbourg in Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 19:15 EAT. The match is played at Roazhon Park (Rennes). Rennes are 5th in the table with 13 points from 7 games; Strasbourg are 14th with 7.

Who will win Rennes vs Strasbourg?

Rennes are favourites, though not by much: 51% to win, 22% for the draw and 26% for Strasbourg. Megapari's 1.74 on Rennes is shorter than our fair price of 1.94: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (82%), over 2.5 goals (64%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Rennes vs Strasbourg

Goals are expected: 1.9 for Rennes and 1.6 for Strasbourg, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.

Rennes vs Strasbourg correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Rennes and Strasbourg in their last five

Rennes have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Strasbourg have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

Rennes: last five matches

Strasbourg: last five matches

Rennes vs Strasbourg head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Rennes won 3, Strasbourg won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 19 April 2026, finished Strasbourg 0–3 Rennes.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Rennes has shortened from 1.80 to 1.74 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.44 to 1.40, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.