Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns prediction: South African Premiership, Tuesday 13 October

Richards Bay host Mamelodi Sundowns in the South African Premiership on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 20:30 EAT. The match is played at Princess Magogo (Durban). Richards Bay are 14th in the table with 3 points from 7 games; Mamelodi Sundowns are 1st with 20.

Who will win Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

The model makes Mamelodi Sundowns clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 21% and Richards Bay at 11%. Megapari's 1.40 on Mamelodi Sundowns is shorter than our fair price of 1.47: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Mamelodi Sundowns to win (68%), draw or Mamelodi Sundowns (89%) and over 1.5 goals (79%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 12 October 2026, 12:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Expected goals are 0.8 for Richards Bay and 2.3 for Mamelodi Sundowns, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.

Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 0-2 at 12%, ahead of 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns in their last five

Richards Bay have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 7 in that run. Mamelodi Sundowns are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 13 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Richards Bay: last five matches

Mamelodi Sundowns: last five matches

Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Richards Bay won none, Mamelodi Sundowns won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 26 April 2026, finished Richards Bay 0–0 Mamelodi Sundowns.

Every match tomorrow is priced on Tomorrow and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.