Rio Ave vs Famalicão prediction: Primeira Liga, Sunday 25 October

Rio Ave host Famalicão in Primeira Liga on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 21:00 EAT. The match is played at Rio Ave (Vila do Conde). Rio Ave are 14th in the table with 7 points from 8 games; Famalicão are 13th with 7.

Who will win Rio Ave vs Famalicão?

Famalicão are favourites, though not by much: 48% to win, 28% for the draw and 24% for Rio Ave. Megapari's 2.00 on Famalicão is shorter than our fair price of 2.07: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Rio Ave vs Famalicão

Expected goals are 1.0 for Rio Ave and 1.5 for Famalicão, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.

Rio Ave vs Famalicão correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (12%) and 0-2 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Rio Ave and Famalicão in their last five

Rio Ave have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -8. Famalicão have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Rio Ave: last five matches

Famalicão: last five matches

Rio Ave vs Famalicão head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Rio Ave won none, Famalicão won 2 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 1 March 2026, finished Rio Ave 0–0 Famalicão.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Famalicão has drifted from 1.88 to 2.00 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.94 to 2.08, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.