Serie A
Roma vs Genoa CFC prediction: Serie A, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Roma host Genoa CFC in Serie A on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Olimpico (Rome). Roma are 2nd in the table with 13 points from 5 games; Genoa CFC are 16th with 4.
Who will win Roma vs Genoa CFC?
The model makes Roma clear favourites at 70%, with the draw at 19% and Genoa CFC at 11%. Megapari's 1.36 on Roma is shorter than our fair price of 1.43: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Roma to win (70%) and Roma or draw (89%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma to win Tip | 70% | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.15 | 5.53 |
| Genoa CFC to win | 11% | 9.29 | 9.90 |
| Roma or draw Tip | 89% | 1.12 | 1.07 |
| Draw or Genoa CFC | 30% | 3.31 | 3.42 |
| Roma or Genoa CFC | 81% | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.34 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.18 | 2.31 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.40 | 1.49 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | 2.09 | 1.98 |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | 1.92 | 1.75 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Roma vs Genoa CFC
Expected goals are 2.0 for Roma and 0.7 for Genoa CFC, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.
Roma vs Genoa CFC correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (14%) and 1-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 13.7% | 7.28 |
| 1-0 | 13.6% | 7.36 |
| 1-1 | 9.9% | 10.14 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.73 |
| 3-0 | 9.0% | 11.12 |
Form: Roma and Genoa CFC in their last five
Roma are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. Genoa CFC have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Roma: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Inter (home)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Torino (away)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Fenerbahçe (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Atalanta (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | US Lecce (away)Serie A | 4-0 | W |
Genoa CFC: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Fiorentina (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Parma (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Frosinone (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Como (home)Serie A | 1-4 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Lazio (away)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
Roma vs Genoa CFC head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Roma won 3, Genoa CFC won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 8 March 2026, finished Genoa CFC 2–1 Roma.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Genoa CFC – RomaSerie A | 2-1 |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Roma – Genoa CFCSerie A | 3-1 |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Roma – Genoa CFCSerie A | 3-1 |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Genoa CFC – RomaSerie A | 1-1 |
| 19 May 2024 | Roma – Genoa CFCSerie A | 1-0 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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