UEFA Champions League
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 20 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Sabah host Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Baku Olympic Stadium (Baku). Sabah are 22nd in the table with 3 points from 2 games; Borussia Dortmund are 18th with 3.
Who will win Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund are favourites, though not by much: 55% to win, 21% for the draw and 25% for Sabah. Megapari's 1.37 on Borussia Dortmund is shorter than our fair price of 1.82: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%) and over 2.5 goals (62%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah to win | 25% | 4.06 | 8.75 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.87 | 5.89 |
| Borussia Dortmund to win | 55% | 1.82 | 1.37 |
| Sabah or draw | 45% | 2.22 | 3.40 |
| Draw or Borussia Dortmund | 75% | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| Sabah or Borussia Dortmund | 79% | 1.26 | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 62% | 1.60 | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.66 | 2.76 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | 1.81 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.75 | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.34 | 2.12 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 15 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund
Goals are expected: 1.6 for Sabah and 1.6 for Borussia Dortmund, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (8%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.14 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 11.99 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.06 |
| 1-0 | 6.2% | 16.08 |
Form: Sabah and Borussia Dortmund in their last five
Sabah have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Borussia Dortmund have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Sabah: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | Slavia Prague (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Man United (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-4 | L |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva (home)UEFA Champions League | 5-2 | W |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Aarhus (home)UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
Borussia Dortmund: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Bodø/Glimt (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| 9 Oct 2026 | SV Werder Bremen (home)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | VfB Stuttgart (away)Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Paderborn 07 (home)Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Villarreal (home)UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund head to head
Sabah and Borussia Dortmund have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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