Bundesliga
Schalke 04 vs Mainz prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Schalke 04
Mainz
- Schalke 04
- 32%Megapari 2.98
- Draw
- 28%Megapari 3.70
- Mainz
- 39%Megapari 2.44
- Under 3.5 goals78% · fair 1.28Bet 1.51
xG 1.0–1.1 · likeliest 1-1 (14%)
Schalke 04 host Mainz in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Veltins-Arena (Gelsenkirchen). Schalke 04 are 11th in the table with 5 points from 4 games; Mainz are 7th with 7.
Who will win Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
There is little to separate the sides: Schalke 04 32%, the draw 28%, Mainz 39%. Megapari's 2.44 on Mainz is shorter than our fair price of 2.55: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (78%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 to win | 32% | 3.09 | 2.98 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 | 3.70 |
| Mainz to win | 39% | 2.55 | 2.44 |
| Schalke 04 or draw | 61% | 1.64 | 1.62 |
| Draw or Mainz | 68% | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| Schalke 04 or Mainz | 72% | 1.40 | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.95 | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.06 | 2.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 78% | 1.28 | 1.51 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.78 | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.28 | 2.50 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Schalke 04 vs Mainz
Expected goals are 1.0 for Schalke 04 and 1.1 for Mainz, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Schalke 04 vs Mainz correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (13%) and 0-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.9% | 7.18 |
| 0-1 | 12.5% | 7.99 |
| 0-0 | 11.9% | 8.42 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 9.01 |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | 12.99 |
Form: Schalke 04 and Mainz in their last five
Schalke 04 have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Mainz have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.
Schalke 04: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (home)Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Union Berlin (away)Bundesliga | 3-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Bayern Munich (home)Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Augsburg (away)Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| 17 May 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig (home)2. Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
Mainz: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Gladbach (away)Bundesliga | 4-3 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (home)Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Hamburger SV (away)Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Paderborn 07 (home)Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| 16 May 2026 | Heidenheim (away)Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
Schalke 04 vs Mainz head to head
Schalke 04 and Mainz have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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