Shabana vs Nairobi United prediction: Kenyan Premier League, Sunday 18 October

Shabana host Nairobi United in the Kenyan Premier League on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 15:00 EAT. The match is played at Afraha (Nakuru). Shabana are 5th in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Nairobi United are 7th with 1.

Who will win Shabana vs Nairobi United?

There is little to separate the sides: Shabana 36%, the draw 30%, Nairobi United 34%. At 30% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.35 on Shabana is shorter than our fair price of 2.76: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Shabana vs Nairobi United

The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 1.1 and 1.2, and under 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.

Shabana vs Nairobi United correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 1-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Shabana and Nairobi United in their last five

Shabana have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Nairobi United are unbeaten in 5 (1 win, 4 draws), with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Shabana: last five matches

Nairobi United: last five matches

Shabana vs Nairobi United head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Shabana won none, Nairobi United won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 5 April 2026, finished Nairobi United 3–0 Shabana.

The rest of the Kenyan Premier League is on our FKF Premier League page, every match tomorrow is priced on Tomorrow and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.