Sheffield United vs Derby County prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 24 October

Sheffield United host Derby County in the EFL Championship on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT.

Who will win Sheffield United vs Derby County?

Sheffield United are favourites, though not by much: 48% to win, 26% for the draw and 26% for Derby County. Megapari's 1.93 on Sheffield United is shorter than our fair price of 2.09: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Sheffield United vs Derby County

Expected goals are 1.6 for Sheffield United and 1.1 for Derby County, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Sheffield United vs Derby County correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Sheffield United and Derby County in their last five

Sheffield United have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Derby County have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Sheffield United: last five matches

Derby County: last five matches

Sheffield United vs Derby County head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Sheffield United won 3, Derby County won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished Derby County 1–2 Sheffield United.

The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.