EFL Championship
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Southampton
Bolton Wanderers
- Southampton
- 62%
- Draw
- 21%
- Bolton Wanderers
- 18%
- Southampton to win62% · fair 1.62
- Southampton or draw82% · fair 1.22
- Over 1.5 goals80% · fair 1.24
xG 2.2–1.1 · likeliest 2-1 (10%)
Southampton host Bolton Wanderers in the EFL Championship on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers?
The model makes Southampton clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 21% and Bolton Wanderers at 18%.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Southampton to win (62%), Southampton or draw (82%) and over 1.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton to win Tip | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.85 |
| Bolton Wanderers to win | 18% | 5.65 |
| Southampton or draw Tip | 82% | 1.22 |
| Draw or Bolton Wanderers | 38% | 2.61 |
| Southampton or Bolton Wanderers | 79% | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.29 |
Goals in Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers
Goals are expected: 2.2 for Southampton and 1.1 for Bolton Wanderers, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.15 |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | 10.62 |
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 11.07 |
| 1-0 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 3-1 | 7.1% | 14.01 |
Form: Southampton and Bolton Wanderers in their last five
Southampton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Bolton Wanderers have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Southampton: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Wrexham (away)EFL Championship | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Bristol City (home)EFL Championship | 4-1 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Swansea City (home)EFL Championship | 3-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Lincoln City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Birmingham City (away)EFL Championship | 1-1 | D |
Bolton Wanderers: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Norwich City (away)EFL Championship | 4-3 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cardiff City (home)EFL Championship | 1-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | West Ham (home)EFL Championship | 2-3 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Millwall (away)EFL Championship | 0-4 | L |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United (away)EFL Championship | 2-3 | L |
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers head to head
Southampton and Bolton Wanderers have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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