Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction: Eredivisie, Sunday 25 October

Sparta Rotterdam host Ajax in Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 18:45 EAT. The match is played at Het Kasteel (Rotterdam). Sparta Rotterdam are 12th in the table with 9 points from 9 games; Ajax are 4th with 18.

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?

The model makes Ajax clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 20% and Sparta Rotterdam at 18%. Megapari's 1.52 on Ajax is shorter than our fair price of 1.61: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Ajax to win (62%), draw or Ajax (82%), over 1.5 goals (83%), over 2.5 goals (67%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax

Goals are expected: 1.2 for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.3 for Ajax, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 67%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-2 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (8%) and 0-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.

Form: Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax in their last five

Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -6. Ajax have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.

Sparta Rotterdam: last five matches

Ajax: last five matches

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Sparta Rotterdam won none, Ajax won 3 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 14 March 2026, finished Ajax 4–0 Sparta Rotterdam.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Ajax has drifted from 1.40 to 1.52 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.31 to 1.28, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.