Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction: Eredivisie, Saturday 17 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
- Sparta Rotterdam
- 55%Megapari 1.55
- Draw
- 24%Megapari 4.38
- Willem II
- 20%Megapari 5.50
- Sparta Rotterdam to win55% · fair 1.80Bet 1.55
xG 1.5–0.9 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Sparta Rotterdam host Willem II in Eredivisie on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Het Kasteel (Rotterdam). Sparta Rotterdam are 12th in the table with 6 points from 8 games; Willem II are 18th with 2.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
Sparta Rotterdam are favourites, though not by much: 55% to win, 24% for the draw and 20% for Willem II. Megapari's 1.55 on Sparta Rotterdam is shorter than our fair price of 1.80: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: Sparta Rotterdam to win (55%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam to win Tip | 55% | 1.80 | 1.55 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | 4.38 |
| Willem II to win | 20% | 4.96 | 5.50 |
| Sparta Rotterdam or draw | 80% | 1.25 | 1.15 |
| Draw or Willem II | 45% | 2.24 | 2.44 |
| Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II | 76% | 1.32 | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | 2.52 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | 1.69 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.79 | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.27 | 2.37 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
Expected goals are 1.5 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.9 for Willem II, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (13%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.81 |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | 7.89 |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 10.16 |
| 0-0 | 9.3% | 10.75 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.87 |
Form: Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II in their last five
Sparta Rotterdam have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 7 in that run. Willem II have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Sparta Rotterdam: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Go Ahead Eagles (away)Eredivisie | 3-3 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Heerenveen (home)Eredivisie | 0-4 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | PSV Eindhoven (away)Eredivisie | 1-4 | L |
| 4 Sep 2026 | PEC Zwolle (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | SBV Excelsior (away)Eredivisie | 1-2 | L |
Willem II: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Fortuna Sittard (home)Eredivisie | 0-1 | L |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Ajax (away)Eredivisie | 1-5 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | AZ (away)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | SBV Excelsior (home)Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Heerenveen (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Sparta Rotterdam won 2, Willem II won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 2 March 2025, finished Sparta Rotterdam 4–0 Willem II.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam – Willem IIEredivisie | 4-0 |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Willem II – Sparta RotterdamEredivisie | 1-2 |
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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