St. Mirren vs Dundee prediction: Scottish Premiership, Saturday 24 October

St. Mirren host Dundee in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Saint Mirren (Paisley). St. Mirren are 8th in the table with 10 points from 9 games; Dundee are 4th with 13.

Who will win St. Mirren vs Dundee?

There is little to separate the sides: St. Mirren 39%, the draw 27%, Dundee 34%. Megapari's 2.11 on St. Mirren is shorter than our fair price of 2.56: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in St. Mirren vs Dundee

Expected goals are 1.2 for St. Mirren and 1.3 for Dundee, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 58%.

St. Mirren vs Dundee correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: St. Mirren and Dundee in their last five

St. Mirren have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 2 in that run. Dundee have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

St. Mirren: last five matches

Dundee: last five matches

St. Mirren vs Dundee head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, St. Mirren won 1, Dundee won 4 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished Dundee 1–0 St. Mirren.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on St. Mirren has drifted from 2.02 to 2.11 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.71 to 1.50, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.