Stoke City vs Bristol City prediction: EFL Championship, Saturday 24 October

Stoke City host Bristol City in the EFL Championship on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT.

Who will win Stoke City vs Bristol City?

There is little to separate the sides: Stoke City 40%, the draw 28%, Bristol City 32%. Megapari's 2.28 on Stoke City is shorter than our fair price of 2.48: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Stoke City vs Bristol City

Expected goals are 1.3 for Stoke City and 1.1 for Bristol City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

Stoke City vs Bristol City correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Stoke City and Bristol City in their last five

Stoke City are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. Bristol City have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

Stoke City: last five matches

Bristol City: last five matches

Stoke City vs Bristol City head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Stoke City won 2, Bristol City won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 2 May 2026, finished Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City.

The rest of the EFL Championship is on our Championship page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.