Strasbourg vs PSG prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 17 October

Strasbourg host PSG in Ligue 1 on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 18:15 EAT. The match is played at Stade de la Meinau (Strasbourg). Strasbourg are 9th in the table with 7 points from 5 games; PSG are 6th with 8.

Who will win Strasbourg vs PSG?

The model makes PSG clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 19% and Strasbourg at 17%. Megapari's 1.46 on PSG is shorter than our fair price of 1.58: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: PSG to win (63%), draw or PSG (83%), over 1.5 goals (82%), over 2.5 goals (67%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Strasbourg vs PSG

Goals are expected: 1.2 for Strasbourg and 2.2 for PSG, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 67%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.

Strasbourg vs PSG correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-2 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 0-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Strasbourg and PSG in their last five

Strasbourg have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. PSG have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.

Strasbourg: last five matches

PSG: last five matches

Strasbourg vs PSG head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Strasbourg won 1, PSG won 4 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 1 February 2026, finished Strasbourg 1–2 PSG.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.