UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Sturm Graz
Marseille
- Sturm Graz
- 33%Megapari 3.06
- Draw
- 28%Megapari 3.57
- Marseille
- 39%Megapari 2.35
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.2–1.3 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Sturm Graz host Marseille in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Merkur Arena (Graz). Sturm Graz are 26th in the table with 1 points from 2 games; Marseille are 32nd with 0.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
There is little to separate the sides: Sturm Graz 33%, the draw 28%, Marseille 39%. Megapari's 2.35 on Marseille is shorter than our fair price of 2.54: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz to win | 33% | 3.04 | 3.06 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | 3.57 |
| Marseille to win | 39% | 2.54 | 2.35 |
| Sturm Graz or draw | 61% | 1.65 | 1.64 |
| Draw or Marseille | 67% | 1.49 | 1.41 |
| Sturm Graz or Marseille | 72% | 1.38 | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | 2.02 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.83 | 1.63 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.21 | 2.17 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Expected goals are 1.2 for Sturm Graz and 1.3 for Marseille, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (10%) and 1-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.47 |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | 9.82 |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 10.46 |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 11.25 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.18 |
Form: Sturm Graz and Marseille in their last five
Sturm Graz have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Marseille have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Sturm Graz: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Bournemouth (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Austria Wien (away)Austrian Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg (away)Austrian Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Rennes (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | LASK (home)Austrian Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
Marseille: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Olympiacos (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Troyes (away)Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | PSG (home)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Beşiktaş (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Rennes (away)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
Sturm Graz vs Marseille head to head
Sturm Graz and Marseille have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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