Sunderland vs Leeds prediction: Premier League, Sunday 25 October

Sunderland host Leeds in the Premier League on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at Stadium of Light (Sunderland). Sunderland are 19th in the table with 4 points from 7 games; Leeds are 7th with 10.

Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?

There is little to separate the sides: Sunderland 31%, the draw 29%, Leeds 40%. At 29% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari pays 2.63 on Leeds, more than our fair price of 2.50.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (79%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Sunderland vs Leeds

Expected goals are 0.9 for Sunderland and 1.2 for Leeds, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 45%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.

Sunderland vs Leeds correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 0-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-1 (14%) and 0-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Sunderland and Leeds in their last five

Sunderland have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Leeds have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Sunderland: last five matches

Leeds: last five matches

Sunderland vs Leeds head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Sunderland won 2, Leeds won 1 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 3 March 2026, finished Leeds 0–1 Sunderland.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Leeds has drifted from 2.50 to 2.63 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.11 to 2.14, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.