SV Werder Bremen vs Paderborn 07 prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October

SV Werder Bremen host Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Weserstadion (Bremen). SV Werder Bremen are 4th in the table with 8 points from 5 games; Paderborn 07 are 12th with 4.

Who will win SV Werder Bremen vs Paderborn 07?

SV Werder Bremen are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 25% for the draw and 26% for Paderborn 07. Megapari's 1.84 on SV Werder Bremen is shorter than our fair price of 2.01: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in SV Werder Bremen vs Paderborn 07

Expected goals are 1.6 for SV Werder Bremen and 1.1 for Paderborn 07, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 58%.

SV Werder Bremen vs Paderborn 07 correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: SV Werder Bremen and Paderborn 07 in their last five

SV Werder Bremen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Paderborn 07 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

SV Werder Bremen: last five matches

Paderborn 07: last five matches

SV Werder Bremen vs Paderborn 07 head to head

SV Werder Bremen and Paderborn 07 have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.