UEFA Conference League
Thun vs Hajduk Split prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Thun host Hajduk Split in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Stockhorn Arena (Thun). Thun are 30th in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Hajduk Split are 10th with 3.
Who will win Thun vs Hajduk Split?
There is little to separate the sides: Thun 35%, the draw 26%, Hajduk Split 39%. Megapari's 2.59 on Hajduk Split sits right on our fair price of 2.55.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thun to win | 35% | 2.84 | 2.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | 3.48 |
| Hajduk Split to win | 39% | 2.55 | 2.59 |
| Thun or draw | 61% | 1.64 | 1.52 |
| Draw or Hajduk Split | 65% | 1.54 | 1.48 |
| Thun or Hajduk Split | 74% | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.39 | 2.21 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.61 | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 60% | 1.66 | 1.52 |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | 2.51 | 2.37 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 17:04 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Thun vs Hajduk Split
Goals are expected: 1.6 for Thun and 1.7 for Hajduk Split, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.
Thun vs Hajduk Split correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.68 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.66 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.62 |
| 0-1 | 5.9% | 17.09 |
Form: Thun and Hajduk Split in their last five
Thun have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Hajduk Split have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Thun: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Twente (away)UEFA Conference League | 0-1 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Zurich (away)Swiss Super League | 2-4 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Vaduz (away)Swiss Super League | 2-1 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Servette (home)Swiss Super League | 2-4 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Grasshopper Club Zurich (home)Swiss Super League | 0-1 | L |
Hajduk Split: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Ajax (home)UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb (home)Croatian HNL | 2-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Rijeka (away)Croatian HNL | 0-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Slaven Belupo (home)Croatian HNL | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Rudes (away)Croatian HNL | 4-0 | W |
Thun vs Hajduk Split head to head
Thun and Hajduk Split have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT