Toulouse vs Troyes prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 24 October

Toulouse host Troyes in Ligue 1 on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 18:15 EAT. The match is played at Municipal (Toulouse). Toulouse are 7th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; Troyes are 17th with 4.

Who will win Toulouse vs Troyes?

Toulouse are favourites, though not by much: 57% to win, 23% for the draw and 19% for Troyes. Megapari's 1.75 on Toulouse sits right on our fair price of 1.74.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Toulouse to win (57%) and Toulouse or draw (81%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 17 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Toulouse vs Troyes

Expected goals are 1.9 for Toulouse and 1.0 for Troyes, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Toulouse vs Troyes correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Toulouse and Troyes in their last five

Toulouse have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Troyes have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -9. The results cover every competition in our data.

Toulouse: last five matches

Troyes: last five matches

Toulouse vs Troyes head to head

Toulouse and Troyes have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Toulouse has drifted from 1.62 to 1.75 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.68 to 1.69, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.