UEFA Conference League
Trabzonspor vs Heart of Midlothian prediction: UEFA Conference League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Trabzonspor host Heart of Midlothian in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Papara Park (Trabzon). Trabzonspor are 3rd in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Heart of Midlothian are 19th with 1.
Who will win Trabzonspor vs Heart of Midlothian?
The model makes Trabzonspor clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 21% and Heart of Midlothian at 17%. Megapari's 1.45 on Trabzonspor is shorter than our fair price of 1.61: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Trabzonspor to win (62%), Trabzonspor or draw (83%) and over 1.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor to win Tip | 62% | 1.61 | 1.45 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.82 | 4.91 |
| Heart of Midlothian to win | 17% | 5.88 | 7.04 |
| Trabzonspor or draw Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| Draw or Heart of Midlothian | 38% | 2.65 | 2.85 |
| Trabzonspor or Heart of Midlothian | 79% | 1.26 | 1.19 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.42 | 2.34 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 | 1.47 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.84 | 1.77 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.20 | 1.95 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Trabzonspor vs Heart of Midlothian
Goals are expected: 2.0 for Trabzonspor and 1.1 for Heart of Midlothian, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Trabzonspor vs Heart of Midlothian correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 10.00 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.14 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.61 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.48 |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | 14.84 |
Form: Trabzonspor and Heart of Midlothian in their last five
Trabzonspor have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +13. Heart of Midlothian have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Trabzonspor: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | KuPS (away)UEFA Conference League | 4-2 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Samsunspor (away)Süper Lig | 3-0 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Galatasaray (home)Süper Lig | 4-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Konyaspor (away)Süper Lig | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Genclerbirligi (home)Süper Lig | 5-0 | W |
Heart of Midlothian: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Nordsjælland (home)UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| 10 Oct 2026 | St. Mirren (home)Scottish Premiership | 5-0 | W |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Kilmarnock (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-1 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Falkirk (away)Scottish Premiership | 1-2 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Dundee (home)Scottish Premiership | 2-1 | W |
Trabzonspor vs Heart of Midlothian head to head
Trabzonspor and Heart of Midlothian have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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