Troyes vs Lens prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 17 October

Troyes host Lens in Ligue 1 on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Stade de l'Aube (Troyes). Troyes are 16th in the table with 4 points from 5 games; Lens are 7th with 7.

Who will win Troyes vs Lens?

Lens are favourites, though not by much: 54% to win, 24% for the draw and 22% for Troyes. Megapari's 1.87 on Lens sits right on our fair price of 1.85.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%) and both teams to score: yes (58%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Troyes vs Lens

Goals are expected: 1.1 for Troyes and 1.9 for Lens, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.

Troyes vs Lens correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Troyes and Lens in their last five

Troyes have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -7. Lens have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

Troyes: last five matches

Lens: last five matches

Troyes vs Lens head to head

Troyes and Lens have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.