TSG Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen prediction: Bundesliga, Sunday 25 October

TSG Hoffenheim host Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 17:30 EAT. The match is played at PreZero Arena (Sinsheim). TSG Hoffenheim are 14th in the table with 6 points from 6 games; Leverkusen are 4th with 13.

Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen?

Leverkusen are favourites, though not by much: 48% to win, 22% for the draw and 30% for TSG Hoffenheim. Megapari pays 2.39 on Leverkusen, more than our fair price of 2.10.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (84%), over 2.5 goals (67%) and both teams to score: yes (66%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in TSG Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen

Goals are expected: 1.5 for TSG Hoffenheim and 2.2 for Leverkusen, 3.7 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 67%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 66%.

TSG Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-2 at 9%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 1-3 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.

Form: TSG Hoffenheim and Leverkusen in their last five

TSG Hoffenheim have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Leverkusen have won all of their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 4. The results cover every competition in our data.

TSG Hoffenheim: last five matches

Leverkusen: last five matches

TSG Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, TSG Hoffenheim won 2, Leverkusen won 4 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 17 January 2026, finished TSG Hoffenheim 1–0 Leverkusen.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Leverkusen has drifted from 2.16 to 2.39 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.31 to 1.33, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.