UEFA Europa League
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 22 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
TSG Hoffenheim host Lyon in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at PreZero Arena (Sinsheim). TSG Hoffenheim are 30th in the table with 0 points from 2 games; Lyon are 8th with 6.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
There is little to separate the sides: TSG Hoffenheim 35%, the draw 25%, Lyon 40%. Megapari pays 2.66 on Lyon, more than our fair price of 2.47.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSG Hoffenheim to win | 35% | 2.87 | 2.58 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | 3.75 |
| Lyon to win | 40% | 2.47 | 2.66 |
| TSG Hoffenheim or draw | 60% | 1.68 | 1.51 |
| Draw or Lyon | 65% | 1.53 | 1.54 |
| TSG Hoffenheim or Lyon | 75% | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.24 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.44 | 2.33 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.60 | 1.46 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 61% | 1.65 | 1.50 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.53 | 2.45 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 16 October 2026, 05:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon
Goals are expected: 1.5 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.8 for Lyon, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.4% | 9.62 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.16 |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | 13.35 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 14.90 |
| 0-1 | 6.3% | 15.92 |
Form: TSG Hoffenheim and Lyon in their last five
TSG Hoffenheim have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Lyon have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.
TSG Hoffenheim: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Beşiktaş (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-3 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Hamburger SV (home)Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Paderborn 07 (away)Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | OFI Crete (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | VfB Stuttgart (home)Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
Lyon: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | Crystal Palace (home)UEFA Europa League | 3-2 | W |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Lens (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Rennes (home)Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Anderlecht (away)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Paris (away)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon head to head
The two have met once in our data: on 7 November 2024, TSG Hoffenheim 2–2 Lyon.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2024 | TSG Hoffenheim – LyonUEFA Europa League | 2-2 |
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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