Udinese vs AC Milan prediction: Serie A, Sunday 25 October

Udinese host AC Milan in Serie A on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Bluenergy Stadium (Udine). Udinese are 17th in the table with 4 points from 7 games; AC Milan are 4th with 15.

Who will win Udinese vs AC Milan?

AC Milan are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 25% for the draw and 21% for Udinese. Megapari's 1.83 on AC Milan sits right on our fair price of 1.87.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 18 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Udinese vs AC Milan

Expected goals are 1.0 for Udinese and 1.7 for AC Milan, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.

Udinese vs AC Milan correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 0-2 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Udinese and AC Milan in their last five

Udinese have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 5 in that run. AC Milan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.

Udinese: last five matches

AC Milan: last five matches

Udinese vs AC Milan head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Udinese won 2, AC Milan won 4 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 11 April 2026, finished AC Milan 0–3 Udinese.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on AC Milan has drifted from 1.82 to 1.83 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.98 to 1.97, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.