Serie A
Udinese vs US Lecce prediction: Serie A, Sunday 18 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Udinese
US Lecce
- Udinese
- 51%Megapari 1.95
- Draw
- 27%Megapari 3.71
- US Lecce
- 22%Megapari 4.32
- Under 3.5 goals77% · fair 1.30Bet 1.28
xG 1.5–0.8 · likeliest 1-0 (14%)
Udinese host US Lecce in Serie A on Sunday 18 October, kick-off 13:30 EAT. The match is played at Bluenergy Stadium (Udine). Udinese are 13th in the table with 4 points from 5 games; US Lecce are 12th with 6.
Who will win Udinese vs US Lecce?
Udinese are favourites, though not by much: 51% to win, 27% for the draw and 22% for US Lecce. Megapari's 1.95 on Udinese sits right on our fair price of 1.96.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese to win | 51% | 1.96 | 1.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | 3.71 |
| US Lecce to win | 22% | 4.59 | 4.32 |
| Udinese or draw | 78% | 1.28 | 1.26 |
| Draw or US Lecce | 49% | 2.04 | 1.96 |
| Udinese or US Lecce | 73% | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | 1.94 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | 1.97 | 1.78 |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | 2.03 | 1.95 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 11 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Udinese vs US Lecce
Expected goals are 1.5 for Udinese and 0.8 for US Lecce, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.
Udinese vs US Lecce correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 1-1 (13%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.2% | 7.05 |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.75 |
| 2-0 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 0-0 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.17 |
Form: Udinese and US Lecce in their last five
Udinese have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. US Lecce have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Udinese: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Cagliari (home)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Inter (away)Serie A | 3-5 | L |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Lazio (home)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Monza (away)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Como (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
US Lecce: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | AC Milan (away)Serie A | 0-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Monza (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Cagliari (away)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Roma (home)Serie A | 0-4 | L |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Venezia (away)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
Udinese vs US Lecce head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Udinese won 4, US Lecce won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 8 February 2026, finished US Lecce 2–1 Udinese.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | US Lecce – UdineseSerie A | 2-1 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Udinese – US LecceSerie A | 3-2 |
| 21 Feb 2025 | US Lecce – UdineseSerie A | 0-1 |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Udinese – US LecceSerie A | 1-0 |
| 13 May 2024 | US Lecce – UdineseSerie A | 0-2 |
| 23 Oct 2023 | Udinese – US LecceSerie A | 1-1 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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