Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October

Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at An der Alten Forsterei (Berlin). Union Berlin are 17th in the table with 1 points from 4 games; Borussia Dortmund are 1st with 13.

Who will win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

The model makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 21% and Union Berlin at 18%. Megapari pays 1.73 on Borussia Dortmund, more than our fair price of 1.65.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Borussia Dortmund to win (61%), draw or Borussia Dortmund (82%), over 1.5 goals (80%), over 2.5 goals (61%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 10 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

Goals are expected: 1.0 for Union Berlin and 2.2 for Borussia Dortmund, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-2 at 10%, ahead of 0-2 (10%) and 1-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in their last five

Union Berlin have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -9. Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 12 goals scored and 6 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Union Berlin: last five matches

Borussia Dortmund: last five matches

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Union Berlin won 1, Borussia Dortmund won 5 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 24 January 2026, finished Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia Dortmund.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.